Skip to content

Risk Insights Resource Center

Filters
Clear
Types
Risk Area



Risk Area Topics
Risk Area Topics
Risk Area Topics
Access


Looking for older content?
GARP Resources Archive

Displaying 79 results

Past Events and Content

Article Members Only

Commercial Real Estate Gloom Is Dissipating – in Some Places

March 14, 2025

Office vacancies continue to be a drag on the market; trophy properties are exceptions.

Default
Read Article
Webcast

How to Integrate Climate into Credit Risk

February 27, 2025

In this webcast, we are joined by two senior credit risk managers as we take a deep dive into how credit risk methodologies are being adapted to ...

Modeling | Climate Risk Management | Physical Risk | Transition Risk
Watch Webcast
Article

Credit Risk Measurement: Alternatives for PD-LGD-EAD on the Horizon?

February 7, 2025

Even after 40 years, the PD-LGD-EAD framework is still going strong – but models with more power and greater predictive accuracy are lurking. Though ...

Default
Read Article
Article

Sovereign Exposures: Zero Reason for Zero Risk Weight

January 10, 2025

Despite rising geopolitical threats and evidence that sovereign debt in Europe is now volatile, banks are still allowed by regulators to treat ...

Default
Read Article
Article

Rising Waters: Navigating the Future of Flood Risk and Insurance

December 6, 2024

Floods in the U.S. have increased in severity, frequency and volatility. How is this impacting homeowners, insurers, lenders and asset managers with ...

Modeling
Read Article
Article

Statistical Hypothesis Skepticism: Implications for Credit Risk

November 27, 2024

Despite recent criticism of null hypothesis testing in the scientific community, credit risk modelers continue to use statistical measurement tools, ...

Modeling
Read Article
Article Members Only

Debt Restructurings Ramp Up in Out-of-Court ‘LMEs’

November 15, 2024

Aggressive liability management exercises create conflict and can threaten lender priority.

Default
Read Article
Article

Charting the Future of Consumer Credit Risk

November 8, 2024

Credit risk managers who want to get ahead of the curve must understand the areas of consumer credit that are of the greatest concern in 2025. What ...

Modeling
Read Article
Article

The ECB’s Paper on Novel Risks and IFRS 9 Overlays: A Missed Opportunity

September 13, 2024

Forecasting loan loss provisions for emerging risks under the IFRS 9 accounting standard is an important and extremely challenging task. The European ...

Default | Modeling
Read Article
Article

How Would You Like Your Model-Based Financial Disclosures?

August 16, 2024

Disclosures from credit-loss models can divulge vital data about the key risks facing a financial institution. Today’s scenarios-heavy IFRS 9 and ...

Modeling
Read Article
Article

Credit Modeling: How to Improve Discriminatory Power

August 2, 2024

Predicting defaults is a difficult challenge for risk managers, partly because credit risk models often lack adequate discriminatory power. Some ...

Modeling
Read Article
Article

The Stress Testing Road Ahead: How to Prevent Future Bank Failures

July 19, 2024

Today’s stress tests rely on antiquated approaches that do not consider the full spectrum of banks’ specific exposures to different macroeconomic ...

Default
Read Article
Article

The Fed’s 2024 Stress Test: Key Takeaways

July 3, 2024

The good news is that the commercial real estate market is not projected to crater and that that large U.S. banks have enough capital to survive ...

Counterparty | Default
Read Article
Article

The Evolving Role of G-SIBs: Is Big Beautiful Again?

June 7, 2024

There is a growing appreciation for global systemically important banks. But G-SIBs still face tough risk management standards and high capital ...

Counterparty
Read Article
Article

Navigating the New Regulatory Landscape: How European Banks and Risk Managers Must Adapt

May 17, 2024

Credit risk managers are going to have to adjust to new standards that are on the horizon for models and for artificial intelligence. What specific ...

Counterparty
Read Article
Article

The Rise of Conjectural Risk Management

May 17, 2024

Today, stress testing forecasts and ECL calculations are heavily reliant on guesswork scenarios that largely forego empirical data. How has scenario ...

Default | Modeling
Read Article
Article

A Modest Suggestion to Improve Stress Testing

April 26, 2024

The current process for ensuring that banks have enough capital to cover their potential losses is too reliant on conditional scenario analysis. ...

Default | Modeling
Read Article
Article

The Budget Brain-Teaser: How to Optimize Capital

April 19, 2024

Markets can evolve rapidly, sometimes driven by unprecedented events, and financial institutions therefore cannot over-rely on historical data for ...

Modeling
Read Article
Article

When Insurance Becomes a Risk Factor

April 5, 2024

Insurance products can help mitigate and properly distribute risks, but also often come with perverse incentives that can work against risk managers. ...

Modeling
Read Article
Article

The Data Conundrum for Risk Modelers

March 28, 2024

Understanding the Difference: Forecasts, scenario projections, and model outputs aren't raw data; they carry inherent errors and biases. Risk ...

Modeling
Read Article
Article Members Only

Private Credit Moves In on Traditional Loan Channels, and Regulators Are Watching

March 22, 2024

The segment remains small relative to total debt and the economy, but the risks of contagion and banking instability cannot be ruled out.

Counterparty
Read Article
Article

The CRR3 Output Floor: A Strange Backstop for Credit Risk Measurement

March 22, 2024

Basel 3.1 has a so-called output floor that places strict limits on the amount of benefits a bank can gain from using internal models to meet ...

Modeling
Read Article
Article

Stress Testing in 2024: Analyzing the Fed’s Newly Released Scenarios

March 1, 2024

The Federal Reserve this year requires banks to consider exploratory scenarios that factor in deposit runs and funding liquidity problems, among ...

Modeling
Read Article
Article

Did CECL and IFRS 9 Fix the Procyclicality Problem?

February 23, 2024

Modern reporting standards for expected credit losses are, as anticipated, more volatile than the previous incurred-loss approach. But the key ...

Default
Read Article
Article

EU Banks Enjoy Success, But Must Stay Vigilant About Emerging Risks

February 9, 2024

European banks have done a fine job of building capital while keeping their risk exposure in check in volatile times. How have they achieved this, ...

Default
Read Article
Article

The Costs of Credit Scores and Data Privacy

January 19, 2024

EU courts have recently granted even more protection to consumers’ data, raising doubts about the future of credit scoring in Europe. While greater ...

Counterparty
Read Article
Article

The Risk-Reward of Buy Now, Pay Later

January 12, 2024

BNPL platforms have grown exponentially over the past five years, and may seem like a savior for cash-strapped consumers. However, proper financial ...

Counterparty
Read Article
Article

The FHFA's New Vision: A Wonderful Life for the Federal Home Loan Banks?

December 15, 2023

FHLBanks have moved away from their intended mission as community-oriented mortgage lenders and are therefore in need of a revamp. The Federal ...

Counterparty
Read Article
Article

Unveiling the Hidden Threat of Payment Fraud

December 15, 2023

Operational challenges and reputational damage can compound the financial costs.

Counterparty
Read Article
Article

Will Increased Complexity Save Scenario Analysis?

December 8, 2023

Banks are now under pressure to deploy more explanatory scenarios that expand the range of tail risks they consider. The hope is that this approach ...

Modeling
Read Article
Article

Asset Exchange Connects a Network of Lenders to Customized Advice and Analytics

December 8, 2023

PNC Capital Markets seeks to stand out from the loan-platform crowd.

Counterparty
Read Article
Article

Corporates Awake to Bank-Counterparty Risk

December 1, 2023

Treasurers reacted to this year’s banking turmoil with more – and more sophisticated – metrics to keep watch on their banking relationships.

Counterparty
Read Article
Podcast

Real Estate Risk in Volatile Times

November 21, 2023

Hear veteran risk manager, advisor and professor Clifford Rossi’s viewpoints on trends, threats and opportunities in the commercial and residential ...

Default
Listen to Podcast
Article

The 2023 Banking Turmoil: A Middle-of-the-Road Crisis

November 17, 2023

This year’s regional banking fiascoes in the U.S. offered valuable lessons for risk managers, but do they measure up with the 2008 global financial ...

Default
Read Article
Article

Real Estate Risks Are Global, but Impacts and Perceptions Vary

November 10, 2023

China’s residential and commercial markets are top concerns in a GARP Benchmarking Initiative survey. In the U.S., multifamily and some office types ...

Counterparty
Read Article
Article

Can Banks Reliably Estimate Credit Losses?

November 10, 2023

Financial institutions have improved their ability to forecast losses thanks to better models, impactful regulations and voluminous, higher-quality ...

Modeling
Read Article
Article

Responses Are Mixed to the SEC’s Treasury Central Clearing Proposal

October 27, 2023

Cost-benefit questions persist despite potential for significant risk reduction

Counterparty
Read Article
Article

How Regulatory Backstop Measures Can Lead to Worse Risk Management

October 6, 2023

Whenever supervisors do not feel sure about risk measurement, they add conservatism. But the probability of default backstop the ECB has added to ECL ...

Default
Read Article
Article

Amid Controversy over Capital Requirements, Top-Rated Structured Bonds Offer Respite

September 29, 2023

The biggest U.S. banks are wary of proposed Basel III impacts, but securitization risk weights could drop

Default
Read Article
Article

Should Internal Bank Models Be Used for Capital?

September 22, 2023

Large U.S. banks may be forced to employ standardized, regulator-driven models to calculate capital in the future. But, for a variety of reasons, ...

Modeling
Read Article
Article

How Generative AI Will Disrupt Credit Risk Modeling

September 1, 2023

Improved coding of PD, LGD and EAD models is one of the potential benefits of this innovative technology. How does this work, and what else can ...

Modeling
Read Article
Article

Exhaustive Scenario Analysis: What Banks Can Learn From the Airline Industry’s Flight Simulations

August 25, 2023

Flying is hundreds of times safer than driving, thanks at least partly to comprehensive simulations performed by airline pilots. Banks that want to ...

Modeling
Read Article
Article

Traditional vs. Fixed Analysis: Weighing the Pros and Cons of An Alternative Approach to Scenario Design

August 4, 2023

For decades, to better manage uncertainty and make more accurate forecasts of losses, financial institutions have relied on a multi-scenario strategy ...

Modeling
Read Article
Article

CECL and IFRS 9: Superior Risk Management or Psychological Ploy?

July 21, 2023

Projecting expected credit losses is tricky, partly because scenario analysis is imprecise and partly because recessions do not necessarily yield ...

Default
Read Article
Article

Collateral Management Technology Is Boosting Efficiency and Adding Strategic Value

July 21, 2023

Systems are rising to the post-Dodd-Frank challenges of operational and transactional complexity

Counterparty
Read Article
Article

The Commercial Real Estate Dilemma and Its Impact on Bank Risk Management

July 14, 2023

Banks that are heavily invested in the troubled CRE market now face a variety of complex risks, from the remote work trend to rising inflation to the ...

Counterparty
Read Article
Article

Foundation IRB: An Inferior Option for Credit Risk Modeling?

June 16, 2023

For certain asset classes, Basel III prohibits the use of the advanced IRB approach for credit risk measurement, favoring instead a foundation ...

Modeling
Read Article
Article

Risk Modeling: What Can We Learn from the Rigor of Academics?

May 26, 2023

Financial risk models have repeatedly been found wanting over the past few years, partly because model developers are limited by regulations. But ...

Modeling
Read Article
Article

How Unrealized Losses Weigh on Bank Balance Sheets

May 26, 2023

Mortgage-backed securities plus other credit exposure approach total bank equity capital, according to one estimate

Default
Read Article
Article

Agile Approaches for Credit Risk Modeling: Curse or Blessing?

May 19, 2023

Today, agile model development methodologies are becoming increasingly popular. What are the advantages and pitfalls of these approaches when ...

Modeling
Read Article
Article

Stress Testing and Scenario Analysis: The Customization Challenge

April 28, 2023

Recent bank defaults have proved that “one size fits all” regulatory stress tests do not work. Are there practical ways of individualizing prescribed ...

Modeling
Read Article
Article

Credit Risk Measurement: Basel III’s External Ratings Dilemma

April 14, 2023

The rollout of Basel III in both Europe and the U.S. is on the horizon, but flaws remain in its requirements for calculating risk-weighted assets. ...

Default
Read Article
Article

SVB and Signature Bank: Risk Management Revelations

April 6, 2023

Recent bank collapses can be traced to their narrow-minded approach to stress testing and scenario analysis. What exactly went wrong at these ...

Modeling
Read Article
Article

When to Change IFRS 9 Scenario Weights for ECL: A Simple Rule

March 10, 2023

Financial institutions in Europe now employ a range of scenario-weighting approaches to estimate IFRS 9-compliant expected credit losses, with little ...

Default
Read Article
Article

Measuring and Modeling Residential Real Estate Risk in Unprecedented Times

March 3, 2023

Risk modelers in the mortgage industry now face significant obstacles, thanks in part to rising interest rates, high inflation, stagnant growth and a ...

Modeling
Read Article
Article

How to Model Forward-Looking Credit Risk

January 27, 2023

During uncertain times, the traditional approach for estimating expected credit losses simply doesn’t work. However, while forecasting ECL is a ...

Modeling
Read Article
Article

Catastrophe Risk Protection: Hurricane Ian Dislocates an Already Challenged Market

December 2, 2022

A cyber cat bond is expected soon, but capital constraints may hinder market growth

Default
Read Article
Podcast

Tail Risk: How to Incorporate Extreme Events into Financial Risk Modeling

October 28, 2022

Hear from Prof. Clifford Rossi as we examine some of today’s biggest financial risk modeling challenges. Risk modelers have recently been befuddled ...

Modeling
Listen to Podcast
Article

Economic Misery and Bank Financial Performance

October 28, 2022

Current risk models don’t have sufficient data to account for today’s volatile markets. What’s the true impact of factors like unemployment and ...

Default
Read Article
Article

The Expected Credit Losses Dilemma: Weighting IFRS 9’s “SICR”

October 21, 2022

Under IFRS 9, European banks today face a steep increase in their loan-loss provisions if it is determined at the time of financial reporting that ...

Default
Read Article
Article

Buy-Now-Pay-Later and Alternative Data Bring Disruption to Retail Credit

October 14, 2022

Fast-growing fintechs contend with a credit cycle as CFPB eyes a rulemaking on consumer data rights

Counterparty
Read Article
Article

Are CECL and IFRS 9 Reasonable and Supportable?

September 23, 2022

Recent events, including the pandemic, have raised questions about whether the forward-looking accounting standards that are now in place for credit ...

Default
Read Article
Article

Model Validation: Dissecting the Boundaries of a Rules-Based World

September 9, 2022

The European Banking Authority is seeking feedback from regional supervisors and banks about a handbook it has created for validation of IRB models ...

Modeling
Read Article
White Paper

Understanding the Risks of Multiple Credit Scores in Mortgage Lending

August 17, 2022

Competition among credit score providers is heating up, with increased focus by regulators on expanding equitable access to credit for consumers with ...

Counterparty
See White Paper
Article

Economic Capital: The Power of Diversification

August 12, 2022

As we speed toward the January 2023 deadline for Basel III implementation, the calculation of economic capital has become more important than ever. ...

Modeling
Read Article
Article

Model Validation for Credit Risk: A Critical Deficiency in the Jeffreys Test

May 13, 2022

Modeling
Read Article
Article

The Pandemic Will Improve Risk Modeling – If We Let It

May 6, 2022

Modeling
Read Article
White Paper

Bayesian Backtesting for Counterparty Risk Models

March 3, 2022

Financial institutions need a conceptually sound and easy-to-implement approach for analyzing model performance. Matthias Arnsdorf and Mante Zelvyte ...

Counterparty
See White Paper
White Paper

IFRS 9 and Probability of Default

January 14, 2022

Loss allowances for expected credit losses differ significantly across European banks. The University of Innsbruck’s Matthias Bank and Bernhard Eder ...

Modeling
See White Paper
White Paper

Credit Risks of Peer-to-Peer Lending: The Stock Market Effect

October 20, 2021

How does the performance of a stock exchange impact credit quality, loan defaults and delinquencies in the P2P space? Xin Liu, Xiaoran Ni, Zhigang ...

Counterparty
See White Paper
White Paper

Credit Default Swaps and Credit Risk Reallocation

August 6, 2021

How can investors’ exposure to credit risk be reallocated through credit default swaps? Using granular data on both debt and CDS exposures by French ...

Default
See White Paper
White Paper

The Effects of the Adoption of IFRS 9

April 29, 2021

How does this accounting standard impact the predictability of credit losses across European banks? Christophe Lejard, Eric Paget-Blanc and ...

Modeling
See White Paper
Podcast

COVID-19 and the Commercial Real Estate Market

August 24, 2020

The pandemic has had a dramatic impact on commercial real estate, greatly dimming the short-term attractiveness of big cities while triggering ...

Default
Listen to Podcast
Podcast

COVID-19: CECL, Stress Testing and Overall Credit Risk Impact

May 11, 2020

To help risk managers stay informed of the latest developments and address the challenges associated with COVID-19, GARP has launched a podcast ...

Modeling
Listen to Podcast
Podcast

Calculating Credit Risk: The COVID – 19 Factor

May 4, 2020

COVID-19 is having a dramatic impact on the nature of market, credit, financial, and operational risks facing companies. Information about these ...

Modeling
Listen to Podcast
Podcast

An Update on CECL

November 14, 2019

Today, we speak again with David Anderson, Advisory Director from KPMG, for an update on Current Expected Credit Losses, also known as CECL. For more ...

Modeling
Listen to Podcast
Podcast

Credit Risk Modeling and Decisioning

September 3, 2019

Today we speak with Vikas Deep Sharma, Executive Director, EY and Ivy Tan, EY Senior Manager, specializing in IFRS 9 and Credit Risk for the ...

Modeling
Listen to Podcast
Podcast

What IFRS17 Means for You

May 29, 2019

GARP's new podcast with SAS, The New Age of Risk Analytics, features an episode focusing on the new insurance accounting standard, IFRS 17, which may ...

Modeling
Listen to Podcast
Podcast

What IFRS17 Means for You

April 9, 2019

The new insurance accounting standard, IFRS 17, has broader implications then might be realized. David Anderson, Advisory Director, Risk Consulting ...

Modeling
Listen to Podcast