Climate Scenario Analysis: Practical Insights from UNEP FI

Join David Carlin, TCFD Program Lead at the United Nations Environment Programme, Finance Initiative (UNEP FI), as he takes us through the practical developments in the deployment of climate scenario analysis at financial firms.

Scenario analysis is widely recognized as one of the most important tools for understanding the impacts of climate change on your organization. It can also help prompt longer term strategic thinking about risks and opportunities. Despite this, GARP’s second annual Global Survey of Climate Risk Management found scenario analysis to be among the least mature elements of climate financial risk management across firms. It is clear that a significant gap exists between the need for climate scenario analysis and the capabilities to fully utilize this tool.

To help bridge this gap, UNEP FI has been working with 39 banks as part of a climate risk and disclosure programme. Through David’s presentation, you will gain practical insights into the selection and deployment of climate scenarios at firms. David will also reflect on some of the limitations of the current approach and the role of climate scenario analysis when deployed by regulators for the purposes of stress testing.

The second part of this presentation will include a look ahead to the continuing work by the modelling teams and the NGFS, and how these developments will seek to address the limitations found in the current scenarios. David will also present practical next steps for firms looking to go further in their climate scenario analysis.

This session will conclude with 10-15mins of audience Q&A

Through this webcast you will gain an understanding of:

• The structure of the latest climate scenarios
• How these scenarios are being used in the financial sector
• The future of scenario development and risk analysis

Speakers

David Carlin, TCFD Program Lead, UNEP-FI

Jo Paisley. Co-President, GARP Risk Institute