White Paper

Forecasting Expected Shortfall: What is the Best Approach?

August 30, 2018

When forecasting the market risk of stock portfolios, is a univariate or a multivariate modeling approach more effective? Alain-Philippe Fortin, Jean-Guy Simonato and Georges Dionne examine this question in the context of forecasting the one-week-ahead expected shortfall for a portfolio equally invested in the Fama-French and momentum factors.