The Oil Crisis: Energy Markets, Economic and Geopolitical Consequences

Madrid: The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is increasingly affecting the global economy, with particular attention to the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. As one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, any disruption to oil and gas flows through the Strait can have significant consequences for energy prices, inflation, economic growth and financial markets worldwide. Approximately 20% of global oil consumption normally transits the Strait, making developments in the region a major source of global energy and economic risk. 

Against this backdrop, the event will examine the consequences across energy markets, the global economy and geopolitics, including: 

• Oil and refined-product markets: Brent/WTI differentials, crack spreads, diesel and gasoline spreads, futures curves and regional price differences. 
• Energy-price transmission: Effects on inflation, growth, household purchasing power, corporate margins and monetary policy. 
• Financial markets: Implications for interest rates, currencies, equities and credit spreads. 
• Sector and credit risk: Consequences for energy-intensive industries, transportation, chemicals and other vulnerable sectors. 
• Geopolitical implications: Energy security, alternative supply routes, strategic reserves, trade flows and relationships between producing and consuming countries. 
• Market signals: What crude differentials, refinery margins, inventories, freight rates and refined-product spreads can tell us about the depth and persistence of the crisis.

Agenda:

5:00 – 5:05 pm: Welcome remarks 

5:05 – 5:50 pm: Presentation/Panel discussion 

5:50 – 6:00 pm: Q&A