Chapter Meeting

Building Risk Frameworks for a High Impact, Low-Probability Environment

October 1, 2026 6:00 PM | United Kingdom Chapter | In-Person

Details

October 1, 2026
6:00 PM - 9:00 PM

In-Person

Events @ No 6 6 Alie St, London, E1 8QT

Share

Geopolitical shocks can move energy and financial markets fast and hard. There is often little historical data available to calibrate against when modelling High Impact, Low-Probability (HILP) events of this nature. This session examines why VaR, expected shortfall, diversification assumptions, and other risk frameworks fall outside predicted ranges during HILP events.  

Join us to gain insight and learn how to stay prepared as we explore the following key topics: 

  • Why HILP event risk often falls outside core assumptions used in VaR, expected shortfall, and diversification-based models. 
  • How the breakdown in correlations and illiquid markets can create tail losses beyond the outcomes modelled. 
  • The limitations of calibrating historical data when modelling HILP events. 
  • Practical approaches risk teams can use for measuring and managing HILP event risk when available quantitative tools fall short. 

Registration is required as seats are limited. Priority will be given to GARP Individual Members.

Agenda:

6:00 6:30 pm: Registration 

6:30 6:35 pm: Welcome Remarks 

6:35 – 7:30 pm: Presentation/Panel Discussion with Audience Q&A 

7:30 9:00 pm: Networking Reception

Speakers

Raul Alonso

Raul Alonso

Vice President, EMEA Sovereign, Economic and Geopolitical Risk, Goldman Sachs
Raul Alonso

Raul Alonso

Vice President, EMEA Sovereign, Economic and Geopolitical Risk, Goldman Sachs

Raul Alonso is a Vice President at Goldman Sachs, where he manages sovereign, economic and geopolitical risk across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa from London. He monitors political, economic, and geopolitical developments across the region to inform the firm's risk appetite, and designs baseline and ad-hoc scenarios covering global macro themes and risks. He previously worked on the sovereign and economic risk team in New York, focusing on Latin American country risk and sovereign advisory. 

Raul is also an adjunct professor at Sciences Po in Paris. Before joining Goldman Sachs, he worked as an economic analyst in the Middle East, based in Dubai and Bahrain. He holds an MPA in Economic Policy from Columbia University, an MSc in International Management from ESADE Business School, and is a CFA charterholder. 

Alfonso de la Torre

Alfonso de la Torre

Senior Vice President, Global Sovereigns and Economics, PineBridge Investments
Alfonso de la Torre

Alfonso de la Torre

Senior Vice President, Global Sovereigns and Economics, PineBridge Investments

Alfonso de la Torre is Senior Vice President, Global Sovereigns and Economics at PineBridge Investments (now part of MetLife Investment Management), based in London. He works on the firm's Emerging Markets Fixed Income team, focusing on sovereign risk and macroeconomic analysis across global markets.

Alfonso regularly contributes to the firm's research and market commentary on geopolitical and macroeconomic risk, including analysis of trade policy, tariffs, and their impact on emerging market credit and currencies, as well as the transmission of geopolitical shocks - such as shifts in energy markets and the Strait of Hormuz - into sovereign risk and fixed income pricing.

Imran Syed

Imran Syed

Head, Stress Testing, Market and Counterparty Risk, UBS
Imran Syed

Imran Syed

Head, Stress Testing, Market and Counterparty Risk, UBS

Imran Syed is currently the Head of Stress Testing for Market and Counterparty Risk at UBS.

He was part of the core team that established the Counterparty Market Risk function at Credit Suisse and UBS. Imran has over a decade of stress testing and scenario design experience across Market, Counterparty risk and firmwide stress testing as well as Regulatory Stress Testing. His experience spans across scenario design, execution as well as stress testing infrastructure. Prior to this he set up and led the Equities market risk team for Credit Suisse in India GCC. He was previously the Head of Equities, Capital Markets and Risk Analytics at BofA India GCC. 

Chapter Directors

Lan Luan
Manager in Finance & Risk, Oliver Wyman

Carlos Balula
Senior Vice-President, Nomura

Committee Members

Alpesh Jani
Program Lead, Bailrigg

Stuart Kingham
Senior Risk Quant, Galaxy Digital

Florent Grundeler
Head of Reporting, Development and Solutions, Lloyds Banking Group

Svetlana Kardan
Senior Treasury Manager

Jurate Brazaityte
Market Risk & Regulation Specialist, Standard Chartered

Anna Millar
Audit, Lloyds Banking Group

See What's Upcoming

Explore our calendar of events on financial risk, AI, sustainability and climate, and more.