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The Risk Management Challenges of Stagflation

Overview

In-person or Virtual Participation Available

Global economies have entered a new chapter with the war in Ukraine, lockdowns in China, and supply-chain disruptions. And now there’s the rising risk of stagflation.

What causes stagflation? What dangers does it present to monetary and fiscal policy? How will stagflation impact the liquidity and capital positions of financial firms? How can investment and risk managers prepare to meet the unprecedented challenges?

Please join us for the third GARP New York Chapter meeting of 2022. Our panel of investment and risk experts will discuss the latest inflation developments and their impact on risk in the financial services sector, including: 

• The current inflation and global economic outlook 

• An examination of stagflation through the risk lens

• Optimal market and investment strategies 

• The change of inflation measurements over time

• What we have learned from history, particularly the stagflation of the 1970s

In addition, Bill May, GARP's Global Head of Certifications and Educational Programs, will present findings from the latest GARP Risk Snapshot, focused on inflation and interest rates. During his talk you will learn about risk managers’ expectations for:

• Inflation and interest rates for 2022 and beyond

• Adjustments to models and/or scenario analysis or stress tests going forward to accommodate higher inflation

• The use of derivatives to hedge inflation risk directly or indirectly

• The impact of inflation on liabilities

Agenda

6:30 - 7:00 pm: Registration

7:00 - 7:05 pm: Welcome and introductions

7:05 - 7:10 pm: Insights from GARP Risk Snapshot: Expectations for Inflation and Interest Rates

7:10 - 7:50 pm: Panel discussion

7:50 - 8:00 pm: Audience Q&A

8:00 - 8:10 pm: FRM, SCR, ERP Ceremony

8:00 - 9:00 pm: Networking reception 

Meeting Location

Convene

530 Fifth Avenue

New York, NY 10036

Online details to be provided

Attendees qualify for 1 GARP CPD credit.

Chapter Speakers

Paul Shotton

Chairman and CEO of White Diamond Risk Advisory

Paul Shotton is the founder, Chairman and CEO of White Diamond Risk Advisory, a bespoke company providing risk advisory services to boards of directors and executive management across a wide spectrum of asset classes in the financial services sector. He also serves as board chair of Brighterwatts and of Great Western Care, as a board advisor to Belay Associates, and an advisor to Eleven Canterbury.

Paul has Bachelors, Masters and PhD degrees in physics from the University of Oxford and began his career as a researcher at the European Center for Nuclear Physics Research (CERN) in Geneva, Switzerland. He subsequently joined Goldman Sachs as a quantitative proprietary trader in London, trading all asset classes over a nine-year period, before moving to the second line of defense as an independent risk manager. Responsible for overseeing the trading operations of some of the largest banks, asset- and wealth managers in the world, including Barclays, JP Morgan Chase, Lehman Brothers and UBS, during this time Paul also served as an executive board member responsible for risk management.

Paul is recognized internationally as an industry thought leader in the risk management, academic and banking regulatory communities, having lectured at Yale School of Management, the London School of Economics, Cambridge University, ETH-Zurich and the University of Nicosia, and having presented at numerous industry and regulatory forums, including the BIS-Basel, the Global Association of Risk Professionals, the Risk Management Association and the Professional Risk Managers International Association.

William May

Senior Vice President, Global Head of Certifications and Educational Programs, GARP

William May is a senior vice president and the Global Head of Certifications and Educational Programs at GARP where he is responsible for all aspects of the FRM®, GARP’s flagship certification program in financial risk management; the ERP®, GARP’s industry-leading certification in energy risk; and the SCR, GARP’s innovative certificate in sustainability and climate risk. Prior to joining GARP, May had over 20 years of market experience including holding senior positions at UBS, Bank of America, Fitch Ratings, and Federated Investors, as well as specialty firms like Andrew Kalotay Associates and Law and Economic Consulting Group. He began his career in the research function of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. May holds a bachelor’s in applied mathematics and economics from Stony Brook University; an MBA in information systems and a master’s in economics from Fordham University; a master’s in financial engineering from the NYU Tandon School of Engineering, and a master’s in applied statistics from Columbia University’s Teachers College where he is currently pursuing a doctorate in measurement, evaluation, and statistics.

Stephen H. Dover, CFA

Chief Market Strategist, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, Franklin Templeton

As Franklin Templeton's Chief Market Strategist and Head of the Franklin Templeton Institute, Stephen Dover leverages the knowledge of the firm's autonomous investment teams to provide global capital market and long-term investment insights internally and to clients. The Franklin Templeton Institute harnesses the depth and breadth of the firm's global

investment expertise and extensive in-house research capabilities to deliver unique investment insights to clients. Mr. Dover is a member of Franklin Resources' executive committee, a small group of the company's top leaders responsible for shaping the firm's overall strategy.

Prior to his current role, Mr. Dover served as Executive Vice President, Head of Equities for Franklin Templeton, leading the firm's equity investment teams. He has also served as Chief Investment Officer of the firm's Emerging Markets Equity group and local asset management teams. Previously, Mr. Dover was a founder and chief investment officer of Bradesco Templeton Asset Management (BTAM), a joint venture between Franklin Templeton and Banco Bradesco in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

Prior to joining Franklin Templeton in 1997, Mr. Dover was a portfolio manager with Vanguard where he co-managed an equity income strategy. He also worked for Towers Perrin Consulting (now Willis Towers Watson) in New York, London and San Francisco.

Over the course of his 40 years in the investment industry, Mr. Dover has lived in China, Europe, Brazil and the United States. Mr. Dover holds a B.A., with honors, from Lewis and Clark College and an M.B.A. in finance from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) charterholder. Mr. Dover is on the Board of Trustees of Lewis and Clark College and Law School.

Dan Rodriguez

CRO at P. Schoenfeld Asset Management

Before becoming the Chief Risk Officer at P. Schoenfeld Asset Management, Dan held numerous senior positions in risk management and oversight for the past 18 years. Most recently, he was the Chief Risk Officer at Light Sky Macro LP. Prior to Light Sky, he was a Senior Risk Officer at Point 72 Asset Management, LLC for 4 years. He joined Point 72 after a 7-year career at Credit Suisse where he was a Managing Director and CRO in their Systematic Market Making Group. Dan began his professional career at Morgan Stanley in 2003 as their Commodities Risk Manager and subsequently leading their Market Risk Methodology Group.

 

Prior to beginning his career is risk management, Dan was a full-time faculty member at the Goizeta Business School at Emory University for six years. He also served in the armed forces for nine years, attaining the rank of Captain in the U.S. Army Infantry and served as a Company Commander and Battalion Operations Officer after successfully completing the Ranger Course.

 

Dan received a Ph.D. in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a B.S. in Economics from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. Currently Dan is an Adjunct Professor at New York University where he teaches a course during the fall semester. During his career, he has authored and contributed to numerous publications as well.

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Details

When

September 29, 2022 6:30 PM - 9:00 PM
REGISTER NOW

Chapter Directors

Shobhit Thapar
Executive Director Morgan Stanley
Teresa Tian
Lead Risk Analyst BrightHouse Financial

Committee Members

Ken Abbott

Former Barclays US CRO

Masao Matsuda

President & CEO Crossgates Investment and Risk Management

May Tang

Head of Risk and Analysis Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Didier Blanchard

Head of Enterprise Risk Management – Americas Societe Generale

Murad Nayal

Head of Risk Architecture and Informatics Millennium

Rodney Sunada-Wong

Chief Risk Officer Celsius

Kerem Yaman

Managing Director Global Markets Risk COO Morgan Stanley

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