Bridging the Gap Between Climate and Macro Scenarios: How to Make Macroeconomic Climate Scenarios Usable for Financial Firms

In partnership with NIESR, Vivid Economics and NatWest Group

Whilst much progress has been made in climate scenario analysis, there remains a gap between ‘climate’ scenarios, such as those released by the NGFS, and the information that financial firms need to use the scenarios.

During this first instalment of GARP’s 2021 Climate Risk Webcast series, we will be joined by an expert panel who will share their experience in developing the macroeconomic variables that banks need to understand how their portfolios could perform under different climate change scenarios.

You will also have the opportunity to engage with our panel as we open up Q&A towards the end of the session.

Through this event, you will learn about the gap between the NGFS scenarios and key economic variables required for risk modelling. Our panellists will also discuss how macroeconomic scenarios consistent with the NGFS climate scenarios can be created, and the work taking place to incorporate physical and transition climate shocks into NiGEM (National Institute Global Econometric Model).

Key Takeaways:

• Learn about the models and judgements needed to create usable macroeconomic scenarios that are consistent with climate scenarios.
• Appreciate the scale of the challenges to make climate scenario analysis part of risk management.
• Through collaboration accelerate learning and gain insights from others working in this field.

Speakers

Maxine Nelson, SVP, GARP Risk Institute

Katerina Lisenkova, Economist, NatWest Group

Jason Eis, Executive Director, Vivid Economics

Amit Kara, Consultant