White Paper

Forecasting Macroeconomic Risk in Real Time: Great and Covid-19 Recessions

August 13, 2020

In the run-up to the coronavirus pandemic, financial variables provided policymakers with timely warnings about the potential severity of the crisis. The ECB’s Roberto A. De Santis and Wouter Van der Veken explain the valuable forecasting role of these variables, not only amid the current recession but also during the global financial crisis of 2008.